Discussion paper

DP17273 The Wisdom of No Crowds: The Reaction of Betting Markets to Lockdown Soccer Games

The support of home spectators is one of the contributing factors to the home advantage effect in sports matches. The Covid-19 pandemic led to European soccer matches being played without spectators. We show that betting markets adjusted swiftly to account for a reduced home advantage in both goal difference and the probability of a win. These adjustments proved accurate over a large sample of soccer matches subsequently played without spectators even though the earliest games appeared to suggest a much bigger change in home advantage.

£6.00
Citation

Whelan, K (2022), “DP17273 The Wisdom of No Crowds: The Reaction of Betting Markets to Lockdown Soccer Games”, CEPR Press Discussion Paper No. 17273. https://new.cepr.org/publications/dp17273