Discussion paper

DP1836 Fiscal Solvency and Fiscal Forecasting in Europe

This paper analyses two features of concern to policy-makers in the countries of the prospective European Monetary Union: the solvency of their government?s finances; and the accuracy of fiscal forecasts. Extending the existing methodology of solvency tests, the paper finds that, with few exceptions, EU governments are insolvent, albeit debt/GDP ratios show signs of stabilizing. The accuracy of official short-term fiscal forecasts (those of the OECD) is analysed, using conventional techniques, and found to be reassuring.


Artis, M and M Marcellino (eds) (1998), “DP1836 Fiscal Solvency and Fiscal Forecasting in Europe”, CEPR Press Discussion Paper No. 1836. https://new.cepr.org/publications/dp1836